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Weibull Prediction Intervals for a Future Number of Failures

by

Daniel J. Nordman and William Q. Meeker

Iowa State University

 

 

ABSTRACT

This paper evaluates exact coverage probabilities of approximate prediction intervals for the number of failures that will be observed in a future inspection of a sample of units, based only on the results of the first in-service inspection of the sample. The failure-time of such units is modeled with a Weibull distribution having a given shape parameter value. We illustrate the use of the procedures by using data from a nuclear power plant heat exchanger. The results suggest that the likelihood-based prediction intervals perform better than the alternatives.