Seminar Notice
Statistical Laboratory
Iowa State University
 
DATE AND TIME:  Monday, December 5, 2005, 4:10 p.m.
 
PLACE:  319 Snedecor
 
SPEAKER: Bruce D. Spencer, Department of Statistics, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois
 
TITLE: On Assessing the Total Error of Large Scale Demographic Statistics, Including Surveys, Forecasts, and Randomized Experiments
 
 
Total error modeling attempts to assess the probability distribution of net error, estimate minus parameter.  Sampling variability is but one component of error, often the most accessible.  Total error modeling has been carried out in the U.S. for estimates of population size in a census year, for demographic forecasts as prepared by the Social Security Administration, for budget-deficit forecasts prepared by the Congressional Budget Office.  These efforts are discussed as part of an overview of total error modeling. Advantages and specific problems of total error modeling will be discussed in the context of censuses, surveys, and randomized social experiments.  Much of the material is drawn from the last four chapters of J. M. Alho and B. D. Spencer (2005) Statistical Demography and Forecasting.  New York: Springer.
 
 
COFFEE: 3:45 p.m., 104 Snedecor Hall
 
Seminar schedules and abstracts are available via WWW:  http://www.stat.iastate.edu/
 

Jeanette La Grange
Department of Statistics
102 Snedecor
Iowa State University
Ames, IA  50010-1210
515 294-3440 (office)
515 294-4040 (fax)
http://www.stat.iastate.edu/directory/staff/jeanette.html