Presenters: 

• Philip Dixon, University Professor, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University
• Eric Schares, Science and Technology Librarian, Iowa State University

Title: A Bayesian Statistical Model To Predict Publishing Output And Article Processing Charge (APC) Totals

Abstract: This will be a data analysis story about a problem brought to me by Eric Schares, one of the librarians at Parks Library.  The goal is to predict the number of articles submitted to academic journals in future years.  The data are article counts, by journal, from 2016 – 2020.  The model is a GLMM with a linear time trend and journal-specific intercepts and slopes.  Predictions for 2021 compare favorably to actual 2021 article counts.