Bayesian Working Group Meeting

Bayesian Working Group, Iowa State University, Department of Statistics

Bayesian Working Group Meeting

Apr 15, 2024 - 2:00 PM
to Apr 15, 2024 - 3:00 PM

Speaker: Matt Nowatzke

Title: Estimating agricultural tillage impacts on soil organic carbon for carbon crediting

Abstract: Tillage of agricultural soils provides benefits for cultivation by warming soils in the spring and killing weeds. However, it also leads to erosion, degradation of soil health, and increased greenhouse gas emissions. Conversion to no-till systems can reduce erosion, diesel fuel use, and potentially increase soil organic carbon (SOC), removing CO2 from the atmosphere. To estimate atmospheric carbon removal for crediting, we used a process-based agroecosystem model (APSIM) with Bayesian methods to estimate model parameters, variance, and potential SOC increases by conversion to no-till. We also talk about challenges with estimating these ecosystem services given data and historical sampling limitations.